To start off, I want to make it clear that this is not a ranking based on power. This is not a compilation of the best eight college basketball teams according to my perspective, nor is it a list of the teams I anticipate to be in the top eight a month from now.
Here is a compilation of the top eight teams with the highest chances of winning the national championship in seven weeks. It is guaranteed that the team that emerges victorious at State Farm Stadium will be one of the teams on this list.
Let us begin.
1. Connecticut Huskies (24-3, 14-2)
Do not allow the unexpected defeat at Creighton on Tuesday night to influence your decision: UConn remained the top team in college basketball this year and is the most probable team to win the championship in Phoenix.
Should that occur, the Huskies will make history as the first team to win back-to-back national championships since Billy Donovan and Florida in 2006 and 2007.
The 2023 UConn team is significantly stronger than the one that had a historically dominant run at the NCAA tournament title.
Danny Hurley’s squad appears to have improved offensively. Tristen Newton, who was once a major concern for the team, has now become a versatile first-team All-American. Freshman Stephon Castle has also made a name for himself and is expected to be a top pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer is known for his clutch three-pointers and is often the target of opposing fans’ animosity. Alex Karaban is a reliable player who can perform like a star on any given night. And if Donovan Clingan were healthy, he would be a dominant force in the center position.
2. Purdue Boilermakers (23-3, 12-3)
If you were to apply the same Profile as Purdue to the names “Duke Blue Devils” or “Michigan State Spartans”, there would be no question that you would be considered the top candidate to win in early April.
Regrettably, Purdue’s prestige continues to advance independently.
Matt Painter and the Purdue Boilermakers have consistently been a single-digit seed in the past eight NCAA tournaments and a top-four seed in the last six. However, their success has been limited as they have only advanced past the sweet 16 once during this time. They have also been eliminated six times by lower-ranked teams and in the past three years, their season has ended with a 13 seed, a 15 seed, and most notably, a 16 seed.
However, there is evidence to suggest that order will be reinstated and that Purdue’s playoffs will more accurately reflect the regular season this time.
3. Houston Cougars (23-3, 10-3) USA
The transition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12 did not “de-mystify” Kelvin Sampson’s team as anticipated. If anything, it appears to have bolstered their strength.
Houston ranks first in nearly all advanced metrics worldwide, remaining undefeated in home games this season and boasting the strongest defense among the many solid ones utilized by Sampson since his arrival in Bayou City.
UH possesses the ability to secure six victories within a span of three weeks, thanks to the star potential of all-American contender Jamal Shead. Despite Baylor transfer L. J. Cryer leading the team in scoring, it is Shead who has the capability to single-handedly take on a previously evenly-matched game.
4. Arizona Wildcats (20-5, 11-3)
The last time a West Coast team won the national championship in men’s college basketball was in 1997 when Lute Olson and Arizona shocked Kentucky. This season, the Wildcats (Arizona, not Kentucky) appear to have the strongest chance of bringing the title back to the West Coast.
Tommy Lloyd’s initial two and a half years in Tucson were incredibly successful. He guided the Wildcats to a top seed in 2022, followed by a No. 2 seed last year. Currently, if the season were to end, Arizona would be the fourth team chosen by the selection committee.
Regrettably, he has not achieved success in the top-tier NCAA tournaments. Zona suffered an upset by the fifth-seeded Sweet 16 from North Carolina two years ago, followed by another upset by 15th-seeded Princeton in the first round last March.
5. Tennessee Volunteers (20-6, 10-3)
On that note, it is necessary to let go of the past in order to envision a scenario where one team emerges victorious in all aspects.
Tennessee has yet to compete in a Final Four.
Rick Barnes leads a team this season that has the potential to reach this stage and cause even more impact afterwards.
Last year, there were numerous comments expressing the same sentiment as Tennessee was poised to break records with its adjusted defensive efficiency. Despite eliminating the renowned Duke in the second round, the team’s lack of offense ultimately led to their defeat against Florida Atlantic in the Sweet 16.
6. North Carolina Tar Heels (20-6, 12-3)
North Carolina’s claim as a legitimate national title contender is currently facing challenges, as they have been alternating wins and losses in the Atlantic Coast Conference over the past three weeks.
However, as demonstrated by Hubert Davis’ initial UNC squad two years prior, the March background holds significance.
R. J. Davis is a strong contender for the title of ACC Player of the Year and is a top candidate for the “Kemba” award this March. Armando Bacot has consistently achieved double-doubles in March since playing alongside Ed Cota, and there is no indication that this March will be any different. While his three-point shooting has not been as consistent this season compared to his college career, Cormac Ryan has the potential to be this team’s Brady Manek when it counts.
7. Kansas Jayhawks (20-6, 8-5) USA
Although they have already suffered five losses in conference games and are not currently ranked in the Top 15, there is a certain connection between this team and the Kansas City Chiefs that cannot be overlooked. It seems as though this team is patiently waiting for the most crucial games to occur.
To begin with, this is the sole team in the nation that possesses two players who may potentially be selected as first-team All-Americans. Throughout the entire season, Kevin McCullar (19.0 ppg) held the title of top scorer for the team, while Hunter Dickinson (18.2 ppg/11.0 rpg) solidified his status as the most sought-after player in the transfer portal.
8. Duke Blue Devils (20-5, 11-3)
I was having difficulty with the final spot on this List.
Alabama, Auburn, Marquette, Illinois, Iowa State, Creighton, and Kentucky all closely observed each other, but ultimately, the team I couldn’t let go of was the one that would have been on any list four months ago.
Herzog, similar to Kansas, has been underwhelming in comparison to its lofty preseason ranking. The Blue Devils have a couple of blemishes and lack a standout performance to confidently declare, “That’s why I believe they can be champions.”
